Canada vs Norway

Canada is supposed to beat Norway. Canada always beats Norway. The historical record is 6-1 in the last seven meetings. This year's edition might be the closest one.

The form line

Canada comes in on a six-game streak, outscoring opponents 22-8 along the way. The defense has been solid; the special teams have been better. What hasn't been great is the even-strength scoring — most of the goal differential is on the power play, which the Norwegians can negate by not taking penalties.

Norway is the inverse story. Henrik Holm in net is the difference-maker. The skater group is what it's always been: hard-working, defensively organized, short on top-end skill. They lost to the Czech Republic 3-2 in their last outing in a game they should have won.

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The face-off battle nobody is watching

Hockey insiders will tell you face-offs don't matter as much as analytics suggest. They're wrong about Canada-Norway specifically. Canada wants to control the puck and grind Norway down. Norway wants to defend, kill plays in transition, and rip one in on the counter. The team that wins more face-offs gets more of the game plan they want.

The Canadian center group is deep. Norway is starting one elite face-off taker and three average ones. Math says Canada wins this battle 55-45. The interesting question is what they do with the possession.

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The Canadian power play and Norway's PK

Canada is converting 28.6% on the man advantage at this tournament. League-leading. Norway's penalty kill is at 65.4%, which is brutal. If Canada draws three penalties they're scoring at least one.

That's the entire game plan from Canada's side: forecheck hard, draw a hooking penalty in the neutral zone, take the lead on the PP, then bury Norway with a 30-shot night. It's worked all tournament. It'll work tonight.

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The X-factor: Holm

If Henrik Holm has the kind of night where he stops 38 of 41, this is a 2-1 game in the third period and Norway has a chance. The data says he won't — over a tournament his numbers regress — but in any given game, a hot goalie kills the favorite.

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My call

Canada 4-1. Two power-play goals, two even-strength. Holm keeps it respectable. Norway scores in garbage time with the goalie pulled, the kind of thing that makes the highlight reel look closer than the game actually was.

Canada moves on. The medal round is where the real story starts.