Avalanche vs Golden Knights
Two games into the second round and Colorado has Vegas in a hole most teams don't climb out of. The 3-2 road win Monday wasn't even the lopsided one — Game 1 was. Vegas needs to win four of the next five against a team that just keeps coming.
What the box score doesn't tell you
Colorado's power play is converting at 25.6%, league-best. Against Vegas specifically it's at 40% over their last five meetings. Nathan MacKinnon already has three power-play points in two games. The Avs aren't winning because they're more skilled (they're slightly more skilled), they're winning because the special teams math is brutal.
Vegas's penalty kill came into the playoffs at 78%. Against the top quarter of opponents this season they're at 71%. They cannot keep giving Colorado four opportunities a game. Adin Hill is a good goalie. He's not bailing out a kill that's getting overrun every time.
Watching at home means knowing your team's gear. The official Avalanche jersey sells out for size XL and up by mid-playoffs every year. Order now, not after they go up 3-0.
The Cale Makar problem
Vegas has no answer for Cale Makar. He has 2 goals and 4 points in two games. He's averaging 27 minutes a night. Every Vegas defenseman who tries to close on him reaches and gets beat to the outside. Bruce Cassidy is too good a coach to not have a counter — but the counter has to come without sacrificing Mark Stone's offensive zone time, and that's the trade nobody on the Vegas roster is good enough to balance.
A good composite hockey stick is the closest most adult rec-league players get to feeling what Makar's stick does — and even then, you're not him.
Goaltending and the comparative math
Mackenzie Blackwood (Colorado's playoff starter this year) has a 1.50 GAA and .945 save percentage in the series. Hill on the other side is at 3.50 and .880. Some of that is shot quality (Colorado is generating more high-danger chances), some is just Blackwood having the kind of run goalies sometimes have.
Goalies are also why every backyard rink kid needs a real goalie stick and not a flipped-over player stick. The paddle does different things.
Can Vegas come back?
Down 2-0 isn't dead — Vegas has been there before and dug out. Down 2-0 with the power-play math going this badly is closer to dead. The 2018 Cup run is the comp Vegas fans want to use; the more accurate comp is the 2019 second round when they lost in seven to San Jose after going up 3-1. They're not a closer.
If you're heading to the next home game in Denver, dress for the building. It's cold inside. Rechargeable hand warmers are the move; the disposable ones don't last a full playoff game with a stoppage every 30 seconds.
Series prediction
Colorado in five. They'll close it at home in Game 5 with MacKinnon getting two points and Makar getting one. The Western Conference Final is theirs to lose against whoever survives Dallas-Edmonton. They're the team.
Vegas plays one more good game, probably Game 3, and then the depth gives out.
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