Mets vs Nationals

Six in a row for the Mets. The Nationals are not the Nationals you remember — their rotation has been the best-kept secret in the NL East for the last three weeks. This is a closer series than the standings suggest.

Form going in

McNeil is hitting .350 over his last ten, Alonso has five homers in his last five games, and the Mets' lineup top-to-bottom is finally seeing the ball. That's the headline. The undercard: the bullpen gave up three in the eighth two nights ago, which is the kind of crack that tends to widen against a patient lineup.

Washington has been winning ugly. Their starters have racked up strikeouts — Scherzer and Strasburg combined for 20 over their last two starts — but the offense is mostly Juan Soto and prayer. Soto is hitting .300 over his last ten and seeing pitches like he's reading them off a teleprompter. Everyone else is replacement-level.

• McNeil's .350 over his last 10
• Alonso's 5 HR over his last 5
• Scherzer + Strasburg's 20 K over their last 2 starts
• Soto's .300 over his last 10

Watching at home? Grab an MLB.TV gift card if you're not already subbed, and a Mets jersey or Nationals jersey depending on your allegiance.

Head-to-head and the matchups that decide it

The rivalry runs deep — the franchises have met since 1962, when Washington's predecessor was Montreal. The all-time count sits at Mets 1,044 to Nationals 943, so the orange-and-blue have history on their side. None of that matters this weekend.

What matters: Conforto has hit .300 lifetime against Trea Turner-led teams and tends to pull a fastball when Washington's bullpen is in. Alonso has hit .250 against the current Washington pen — not great, but not the .180 he was running against them last year. The real swing is whether deGrom looks anything like himself after the IL stint. If he does, the series is over in three. If he doesn't, it's a coin flip.

Stock up on the home essentials: Pete Alonso jerseys on eBay, a Mets New Era 59FIFTY, and a stadium seat cushion if you're heading to Citi Field.

The X-factor: the Mets bullpen

This isn't a Rojas-versus-Martinez chess match — it's whether Edwin Díaz can give the team three clean ninth innings in a row. If he can, the Mets win the series. If the door cracks in the eighth like it did Tuesday, Soto is the kind of hitter who walks in the tying run.

Luis Rojas has been shuffling lineups and pitching plans aggressively. Some of it is necessity (deGrom), some of it is feel. Watch the seventh-inning matchups closely — that's where managers actually show their work.

The pick

Mets in three of four. Lineup advantage holds, but Scherzer steals one. Don't bet your mortgage. Don't bet anything, actually — the Mets' bullpen makes nothing a sure thing right now.